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Prediction for CME (2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-09-14T15:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33434/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen to the southeast in SOHO C2/C3 and not yet observed in STEREO A due to a data gap. Associated with a powerful X4.5-class solar flare from AR3825 (S18E55) and subsequent strong eruption, characterized by intense brightening in SDO 131 and fast ejecta seen best in GOES 284 as well as a large, fast EUV wave associated with the eruption traversing back towards the northwest seen best in SDO 171/193 that covers approximately half the solar disk. The arrival of this CME is characterized by a significant increase in B_total from ~9nT to ~15nT, eventually reaching 20 nT by 2024-09-17T01:35Z with simultaneous increases in solar wind temperature, density, and velocity, which reached a peak sustained velocity of 560 km/s. By 2024-09-17T01:39Z, the magnetic field components begin to stabilize with time with steady -Bx and -Bz components dominate the signature until 2024-09-17T12:00Z. There is evidence of a clear flux rope signature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-09-16T22:49Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-09-15T20:52Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 8.0 - 9.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/33445/1
Model Inputs:
2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-30.0, Lat.=6.0, Speed=2040.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-09-14T17:02Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-09-15T20:52Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =19.5 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 4.8
(kp)90=8
(kp)180=9

Other Location(s) Impact:
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-09-15T20:48Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-09-15T03:24Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-09-16T04:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240914_170200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 48.95 hour(s)
Difference: 25.95 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M) on 2024-09-14T21:52Z

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